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Uusin kirjani "Ilmaston lämpenemisen pysäytys kahteen asteeseen" on ladattavissa vasemmasta valikosta. Kirja on suomenkielinen versio jo vuonna 2017 kirjoittamastani englannikielisestä kirjasta "Fundamentals of Global Warming". Tässä kirjan kolmannessa painoksessa ilmaston lämpenemisen SCA2-malli on nyt entistä tarkempi. Sen avulla pystyttiin mallintamaan vuosina 1960 - 2010 tapahtunut lämpeneminen 0,050 asteen tarkkuudella.
Kuten aikaisemmissa painoksissakin on todettu, ilmaston lämpeneminen voidaan rajoittaa kahteen asteeseen, jos päästöt puolitetaan vuoteen 2050 mennessä. Tässä auttaa kirjassa kehitetty hiilidioksidin tasapainomalli, jonka huomioi sen tosiasian, että noin puolet ihmisten aiheuttamista CO2-päästöistä absorboituu meriin. Viimeisimpien NASA havaintojen mukaan meriin päätyy 55 % ilmiskunnan CO2-päästöistä aivan samoin kuin tässä kirjassa on jo aiemmin laskettu.
Asko Vuorinen
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I started writing my first book about Climate Change "Truth of Climate Change" on 6th of December in 2015. The book is studying climate change facts as they really are today. It will present primary data from global warming and forecasts until the year 2200. The book indicates what influence has the greenhouse gases, aerosols and the sun. The anthropogenic global warming (AGW) or warming caused by man's actions has caused the 0.9 deg. C global warming until today.
In January 2017 I started writing my second book, "Fundamentals of Global Warming", in which I am trying to explain what is happening and using Excel sheets to document all the calculations. The first thing I found was the facts that until the year 1985 global warming has been caused by the solar irradiance. But after 1985 other reasons have been the main cause of rapid warming, which is happening at a rate of 0.34 deg. C per 10 years.
In Feburary 2017 I developed a mass balance model for CO2, which will indicate that the CO2 concentration will increase more slowly than expected. The carbon sinks are absorbing CO2 with logarithmic relation to the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere. This will mean that the CO2 concentration will start decreasing if the CO2 emissions will be stopped or reduced below 18 Gt level, which is about 50 % of todays 36 Gt/a.
In August 2018 I have updated the book by new data from 2017. My global warming model can explant global warming with three varables: Total Solar Irradiance (TSI), carbon dioxide (CO2) and sulphur oxide (SO2). The updated model can explain the past warming from 1901 to 2017 with stadard deviation of 0.071 deg.C.
In November 2019 the book was updated to included data from the year 2018. In this 2019 edition I have added a Target Plan in which the global warming can be limited to + 2.0 deg. C. The target is to reduce CO2 emissions from 36 Gt in 2018 to 18 Gt by 2050, but the reduction cannot be done starting today. The peak emissions will be in the year 2025.
There will be about 10 billion people in 2050 and the emissions should be below 1.8 tons/capita in each countries. This is the target level, which shoud be taken by each countries to avoid 2.0-degree warming.
Also eight sets of slides can be found from these pages. The book and slides have been published in http://ekoenergo.fi/page63.php.
Asko Vuorinen
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